Strategic Memo of

The Deal of the Century

Cover page of a report titled 'Strategic Memo of the Deal of the Century' with a background image of an elderly man and a young person, partially obscured. Main text includes version 2.9, executive summary, and details about the authors, publication date, and references.

Download the latest: version 2.9 →

(A pre-final draft of the full 180-page version 3.0 is selectively available since Oct 13th for review)

The core of our Deal of the Century initiative, the Memo goes to key formal and informal US AI policy power brokers and to relevant White House officials.

The most detailed public analysis of how a bold and proper US-China-led AI treaty could be embraced by Trump's — including how to share AI's power and wealth fairly and durably. Inside: treaty-making scenarios, enforcement mechanisms, geopolitics, the persuasion case to Trump, and 150 pages of profiles of his AI power brokers. Updated as events move; version 3.0 is due by the end of October 2026.

Written by our director, Rufo Guerreschi, with 24 contributors since December 2024. It weighs nearly every relevant public statement by the power brokers it profiles — Bessent, Wiles, Rubio, Vance, Kratsios, Sacks, Thiel, Musk, Bannon, Altman, Amodei, Hassabis, Suleyman, Carlson, Rogan and Pope Leo XIV — across 950+ articles, videos and papers.

Our in-person and remote Consultations with delegates of key US AI policy power brokers, under way since late September, feed version 3.0.

Most recent version of the Memo published on ResearchGate:

  • Version 3.0 (October 2026): a full update of v2.6. It opens with a two-page term sheet, adds a chapter on the economics of the treaty, and recasts the profiles as a coalition map. (A pre-final draft version is selectively available since Oct 13th for review)

  • Version 2.9 (August 6, 2026): a 43-page update of the Executive Summary of the full Strategic Memo of The Deal of the Century v2.6.

  • Version 2.8 (June 26, 2026): a 53-page Executive Summary, released with a One-Pager and 3rd Open Letter to President Trump and a 15-page Open Case for Anthropic.

  • Version 2.6 (December 30, 2025): the full 356-page memo, with scenario planning.

  • Version 2.0 (September 2025): 133 pages. Faster AI progress, and a widening US-China lead over everyone else, made us refocus in February 2025 on the two superpowers and the people who shape Trump's AI policy.

  • Version 1.0 (December 2024): the 90-page Case for a Coalition for a Baruch Plan for AI, which sought a bold treaty through a coalition of the willing among non-superpower states.